Our political stage is set

Harper’s cheque bounced, so now I’m offering my services to the other guys. The coalition opposition is in quite the sticky mess. Now, it has to decide whether it will vote down the government on the budget or break up and resume the regular schedule.

So, how should the parties navigate these particularly dangerous waters? My advice works from a self-interest model. I expect the parties would prefer the option that results in maximum benefit to them.

Liberals –

It started when Liberal Toronto MP Jim Karygiannis faced the media and predicted the coalition wouldn’t survive till parliament resumed. He said many Liberals wanted to work with the Torys on creating a focused budget.

At first, senior Liberals were quick to denounce these rogue comments. Ignatieff was amongst the first to say these comments were inappropriate and didn’t reflect the attitude of the party proper. However, these views are taking shape and are becoming the predominate attitude as Liberals jump the already sunken Dion ship.

Finally, the final death blow to the coalition and to Dion, respected Liberal John Manley wrote “The First Liberal Step: Replace Dion” in the Globe and Mail yesterday. He wrote “… the first step for my party is to replace Stéphane Dion as leader with someone whose first job is to rebuild the Liberal Party, rather than leading the coalition with the NDP.” See the story here.

I couldn’t have said it better myself. Dion is making himself more and more a liability to the Liberal party. It’s time to get rid of him for good. If that means appointing an interim leader, then so be it. The Liberals simply cannot afford to have Dion at the helm for one more month.

CBC’s Don Newman goes further and says that it was a mistake to allow Dion to continue to lead after he resigned. His most recent article uncharitably reviews Dion’s motivations for forming a coalition. He says Dion “saw the funding changes as an opportunity to escape the ignominy of being only the second Liberal leader to never be prime minister.” Newman would have had the Liberal party select an interim leader right at the moment Dion resigned.

Picking a new leader would give the Liberals a unique position in the house. The Liberals would have the only leader not intimately involved with this whole mess. The new Liberal leader could just refocus on, as Manley said, rebuilding the Liberal party. The Liberals might have a real shot at the next election. Harper’s had to burn a lot of bridges to stay in power. A well oiled Liberal machine might be able to properly capitalize on that.

The problems, however, don’t just rest with Dion. It is time to develop a team and a strategy capable of competing with the Conservative communication machine. It’s high time to fire who ever was responsible for that awful video tape response to Harper’s address and come up with a much, much better approach. That video was grossly inadequate. The presentation was sloppy, the message was fuddled (not just because of a language barrier), and the timing was off. The Conservatives are going to continue to win so long as they dominate the marketing game.

NDP

The Liberals are going to do all the work for them. I think Jack knows the coalition is going to, and has to, come apart. If Jack can blame the coalition’s failures on the Liberals he’s in a great position. He can say that the NDP was willing to deliver, but the Liberal’s were just not up to the task. Due to the sloppy, disorganized state of their party, the Liberals had to pull out.

Layton can save a lot of face, and make a move to gain some valuable market share away from the Liberals. The NDP has always been ready to take on the Conservatives; the Liberals have always been the ones keeping the Conservatives in power. Vote NDP and give them more power to really challenge the Conservatives.

Bloc

Duceppe’s the only winner in all of this. All he has to do it properly capitalize on the division Harper’s reinforced.

The health of the coalition will depend on Dion’s stomach for a battle against his party. I’d bet we’re going to see it all come apart before the budget. The language will change from “we’re going to take down the government” to “we’re going to demand real change from the government.” The Liberals are going to do everything they can to replace Dion faster. The NDP is going to blame the Conservatives and the Liberals for the failures of our system to work properly. The Bloc is going to work like mad to add fuel to the now burning separatist fires across Quebec. This dynamic will set our political stage for the next 2-3 years.